Crypto News: Market Update October 2026
After September‘s rate hikes, October started quietly. A weak US jobs report made another Fed move unlikely, and bitcoin climbed to almost $87,000. Then energy took over. Higher energy prices pushed September inflation up to 3.7% in the United States and 3.8% in the euro area. Late in October oil climbed further. After Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities, a barrel of Brent cost $116.72, the highest level since April. The Fed and the ECB held rates, but with that inflation in mind neither ruled out a hike in December. For crypto the hardest blow came at the end. On 29 October Binance was hit by the largest crypto hack on record. On Friday 30 October bitcoin traded around $77,400, about 7% below its level at the start of October.
2 October: Weak Jobs Report Takes an October Hike off the Table
The US labour market added 29,000 jobs in September against expectations of 84,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, and the July and August figures were revised down by a combined 60,000. It was the first jobs report since the 16 September rate hike, and it showed a labour market cooling while the Federal Reserve is deliberately slowing the economy.
Markets drew their conclusion immediately. The probability of a second hike on 28 October, which traders had put at more than 70% beforehand, fell to roughly 20% after the report. For crypto that was good news, briefly. Bitcoin reached almost $87,000 on Monday 5 October, just short of an eight-month high, before reversing. A day later marked exactly one year since bitcoin’s record of $126,223. (Source: CNBC)
14 October: US Inflation Rises to 3.7%, Euro Area to 3.8%
US consumer prices rose 0.6% in September on the month and 3.7% on the year, up from 3.4% in August. Petrol prices jumped 9.1% in a single month and accounted for more than half of the monthly increase. Core inflation came in at 2.6% on the year, a tenth above expectations. Investors priced rate hikes back in. The S&P 500 lost 1.1% and the Nasdaq 1.9%, the worst day since July. A week earlier the US 10-year Treasury yield had already risen to 5.35%, its highest level since 2002.
Europe is wrestling with the same problem. On 16 October Eurostat confirmed that euro area inflation had risen to 3.8% in September, from 3.2% in August. Energy was 18.8% more expensive than a year earlier; excluding energy, inflation stood at 2.3%. For the ECB that is a dilemma, because the inflation comes from outside yet remains far above the 2% target. Bitcoin hovered around $80,000 during the week and briefly dipped below it on 15 October, when South Korea’s Kospi lost about 8% in a semiconductor sell-off. (Source: Fox Business)
22 October: Largest Outflow From Bitcoin ETFs Since June
The week started well for crypto. On 21 October bitcoin rose to about $83,500 after Elon Musk said that SpaceX and Tesla had each formed a committee to evaluate a merger. Together the two companies hold 30,221 bitcoin. US spot bitcoin ETFs had by then attracted money for three days in a row, $1.08 billion in total.
A day later that reversed. On 22 October the bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $635 million, the largest since 25 June; BlackRock’s IBIT alone lost $254 million. Ether ETFs were in worse shape, with about $1.08 billion of outflows through 21 October, the largest monthly outflow of 2026. The trigger lay outside crypto. Meta’s quarterly results sent the Nasdaq down 2.6%, and investors stepping out of risk took their crypto positions with them. (Source: The Block)
23 October: Brent at $116.72 After Attacks on Saudi Oil Infrastructure
On 20 October Brent had already risen to $111 after the Houthis claimed attacks on an Aramco facility in Yanbu, the Shaybah oil field and the airports of Riyadh and Abha. A day later the US State Department ordered non-emergency staff to leave Saudi Arabia, and on 22 October The New York Times reported that the United States and Israel have drawn up specific plans for a strike campaign against Iran after the elections. On Friday 23 October Brent settled 3.1% higher at $116.72 a barrel, its highest level since 29 April; WTI ended at $103.27.
The weekend brought a first pause. Saudi Arabia reported only intercepted missiles and no confirmed damage after new Houthi claims, Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran on 25 October, and Trump said there would be “no strike today”. Brent eased back towards $114 on 26 October. Whether the United States will strike after the elections remained an open question. (Source: CNBC)
28 October: Fed Pauses, but Two Members Already Wanted a Hike
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75-4.00% on 28 October, after September’s hike. The vote was 10-2. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack wanted a 0.25 percentage point increase, whereas the September vote had been unanimous. The statement now describes growth as expanding at a “strong pace” and uncertainty as “elevated, partly due to geopolitical developments”. Chair Kevin Warsh said that real activity is clearly pointing in the right direction, but that inflation is too high and energy prices have moved higher again in recent weeks. He made no commitment for December. After the meeting traders put the probability of a hike on 9 December at 86%, up from 78% a day earlier. Bitcoin stood around $81,000 at the decision but gave up those gains in the hours that followed.
A day later the ECB also left all rates unchanged, with the deposit rate at 2.50%. Energy prices have continued to rise, the central bank wrote, posing upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth; it is not pre-committing to a particular rate path. The bigger news came the same day. President Christine Lagarde will step down on 7 February 2027, almost nine months before the end of her term. The ECB’s next rate decision is on 17 December. (Source: Federal Reserve)
29 October: Binance Hit by the Largest Crypto Hack on Record
For the crypto market the last week of October was the hardest of the month. Bitcoin fell to about $79,700 on Saturday 24 October, its weakest level in more than a month, and stayed below $80,000 in the run-up to the Fed. Then, on the evening of 29 October, came the blow. In roughly twenty minutes about $6.3 billion was drained from Binance’s hot wallets across some ten blockchains. Investigations firm TRM Labs calls it the largest crypto theft on record and attributes it to a North Korean hacking group.
Binance suspended deposits and withdrawals, says it will cover all customer losses and reports that about $3 billion has been frozen with the help of Tether and Circle, among others. According to an initial investigation, the attack ran through an employee’s laptop. Bitcoin fell to about $77,000 and traded around $77,400 on Friday 30 October; ether was around $2,230. Away from prices, stablecoins received their first US rules in October. On 21 October the OCC published final implementing rules under the GENIUS Act, which take effect on 18 January 2027 and bar issuers from paying interest on their stablecoins. (Source: Bloomberg)
Conclusion
October showed how tightly energy, inflation and interest rates are intertwined in this cycle. Oil rose about 15% in a month, inflation climbed to 3.7% in the United States and 3.8% in the euro area, and the US 10-year yield reached its highest level since 2002. The Fed and the ECB both paused, but at the Fed two members already wanted to hike and the market is pricing in another step on 9 December.
Crypto tracked the macro picture closely this month, and mostly downwards. ETF flows reversed, ether lost more than bitcoin, and the Binance hack showed that custody remains a risk even at the largest players. November brings together the midterm elections of 3 November, the question of whether the United States will strike Iran afterwards and the resolution of the Binance hack. Oil will react first, and with it inflation expectations and interest rates once again.
