Where June closed with record outflows from the US spot bitcoin ETFs, July opened straight into extreme fear: bitcoin sank to a 21-month low. From there, geopolitics took the wheel. The war between the US and Iran widened from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea and drove oil above $100 a barrel for the first time in two months, while a cooler run of jobs and inflation data offered brief pockets of relief. On balance, bitcoin climbed from just under $58,000 at the start of the month to more than $64,000 after the Fed’s rate decision.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin opened the month at its lowest level in nearly two years. In Asian trading, BTC slid to about $57,742, the weakest print since 17 September 2024 and more than 50% below its record peak above $126,000 set on 6 October 2025. Hawkish signals from the Fed lifted rate expectations, pulling capital out of non-yielding assets.<\/p>\n
At the same time, investors lost confidence in largest corporate holder Strategy, fearing the company might start selling BTC rather than keep accumulating. June had already seen more than $4 billion leave the US ETFs, the largest monthly outflow since their launch. Bitcoin was trading below its 200-week moving average, and the Fear & Greed Index sat deep in extreme fear. (Source: Bloomberg<\/a>)<\/p>\n The BLS employment report showed a gain of just 57,000 jobs, well short of the roughly 115,000 that economists had expected. The unemployment rate did edge down to 4.2%, but mostly because labor-force participation fell 0.3 percentage point to 61.5%, its lowest reading since March 2021. April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000 jobs, with May cut to 129,000.<\/p>\n Crypto turned risk-on, as the soft print eased fears of another round of rate hikes. Bitcoin rebounded off its low toward $62,000, ETH climbed back above $1,700, and roughly $450 million in short positions were liquidated. That also brought a weeks-long ETF outflow streak of some $2.7 billion to an end. (Source: CNBC<\/a>)<\/p>\n US Central Command reported that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard had openly attacked a Cyprus-flagged container ship mid-transit, leaving one crew member missing; Iran responded by declaring the strait closed. In retaliation, US forces hit around 140 Iranian military targets, the third round of strikes that week alone.<\/p>\n Shipping trackers recorded a steep drop in traffic through Hormuz, stoking supply fears across the oil market. Before the war, roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas flows moved through the strait. The crypto market stayed under pressure over the weekend; bitcoin drifted in the low $60,000s, while risk aversion, a firmer dollar and rising oil prices capped any recovery. (Source: CNN<\/a>)<\/p>\n The June CPI report showed prices falling 0.4% on the month, the largest monthly decline in more than six years. Lower energy costs did most of the work: the energy index dropped 5.7% over the month. Annual inflation eased to 3.5%, down from 4.2% in May and comfortably under the 3.8% consensus. Core CPI was flat on the month and ran at 2.6% year over year, still above the Fed’s 2% target.<\/p>\n Bitcoin jumped on the release, climbing from about $62,900 toward nearly $64,800 as the softer reading raised the odds of a less restrictive Fed. Ether added roughly 5% on the day. The gains proved short-lived, though. Sticky core inflation kept the pressure on, and the concurrent Iran escalation pushed oil prices higher still. (Source: CNBC<\/a>)<\/p>\n The war opened a second front. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia. Brent jumped about 7% to settle at $100.69 a barrel, its first close above $100 since May. President Trump warned that the US would hold Iran responsible for any further Houthi attacks on shipping.<\/p>\n The knock-on effects were immediate. Average US gasoline prices climbed to about $4.10 a gallon, up from $3.92 a month earlier, and in the bond market the ten-year Treasury yield rose to nearly 4.70%, its highest since January 2025. Futures markets moved to price in a more than 80% chance of a September rate hike, up from 52% a week before. Bitcoin, caught between costlier oil and rising yields, stayed below its monthly high. (Source: CNBC<\/a>)<\/p>\n The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50-3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting. The decision was far from unanimous: three officials, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan, voted for a quarter-point increase. It was the first time since September 2016 that three dissents pointed in the same direction, and the June projections still pencil in one hike before the end of 2026.<\/p>\n2 July: US job growth cools sharply in June<\/h2>\n
11 July: US strikes Iran after attack on container ship in the Strait of Hormuz<\/h2>\n
14 July: US inflation cools to 3.5%, below forecasts<\/h2>\n
23 July: Oil settles above $100 for the first time in two months<\/h2>\n
29 July: Divided Fed leaves rates unchanged once again<\/h2>\n